A report released by the University of the Pacific today projects a gloomy medium-term economic future for the Sacramento area. According to the report, the unemployment rate in the area will continue to rise for at least another year. Reasons cited include the slump in construction and a general inertial slowdown in the economy, including a decline in personal income this year.

"Although the recession is technically ending, we expect a slow and sluggish recovery that will not feel like a recovery, at least in California, for at least a year," said a spokesperson at the University of the Pacific's Business Forecasting Center. (This fledgling reporter apologizes for not getting the person's name.)

The most harrowing part of the report was the outlook for the non-Sacramento parts of the San Joaquin Valley. Sacramento as the seat of state government is insulated from the worst, but the farming and manufacturing communities lacking that job base are in terrible condition. Overall unemployment in the region is expected to hover in the neighborhood of 17 percent for the foreseeable future, with some areas being much higher. The only part of Northern California with unemployment under 10 percent remains the San Francisco Bay area.

The report makes the somewhat bizarre prediction that new home construction will rebound to over 150,000 new homes in 2013. The sphincter from which that number was pulled remains unclear.

Some commentators suggest that perhaps basing the entire economy on the construction of shoddy new homes is not the most sustainable or desirable economic model. That opinion has not yet helped the people of the San Joaquin Valley.

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